Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 9.060532e-05 0.000107 0.000125 0.000146 0.000168 0.000192 0.000220
2025-01-05 6.775717e-05 0.000090 0.000115 0.000145 0.000181 0.000220 0.000267
2025-01-12 5.326563e-05 0.000077 0.000105 0.000140 0.000183 0.000232 0.000291
2025-01-19 4.509376e-05 0.000070 0.000102 0.000143 0.000195 0.000255 0.000330
2025-01-26 3.569112e-05 0.000061 0.000093 0.000137 0.000194 0.000262 0.000348
2025-02-02 3.044770e-05 0.000056 0.000090 0.000139 0.000202 0.000279 0.000379
2025-02-09 2.547522e-05 0.000050 0.000086 0.000137 0.000206 0.000291 0.000403
2025-02-16 2.304914e-05 0.000049 0.000087 0.000142 0.000218 0.000313 0.000439
2025-02-23 2.006071e-05 0.000046 0.000085 0.000143 0.000225 0.000329 0.000468
2025-03-02 1.585670e-05 0.000040 0.000078 0.000138 0.000223 0.000332 0.000481
2025-03-09 1.290021e-05 0.000036 0.000074 0.000135 0.000223 0.000340 0.000498
2025-03-16 1.079558e-05 0.000033 0.000071 0.000134 0.000227 0.000350 0.000520
2025-03-23 9.087571e-06 0.000030 0.000070 0.000136 0.000235 0.000368 0.000554
2025-03-30 7.147360e-06 0.000027 0.000066 0.000134 0.000238 0.000380 0.000579
2025-04-06 5.259950e-06 0.000024 0.000062 0.000130 0.000237 0.000386 0.000597
2025-04-13 4.420382e-06 0.000022 0.000061 0.000133 0.000246 0.000405 0.000632
2025-04-20 3.037957e-06 0.000019 0.000056 0.000127 0.000243 0.000407 0.000645
2025-04-27 2.410039e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000128 0.000249 0.000423 0.000676
2025-05-04 1.771212e-06 0.000016 0.000053 0.000127 0.000252 0.000434 0.000700
2025-05-11 1.541155e-06 0.000015 0.000053 0.000132 0.000264 0.000457 0.000742
2025-05-18 1.196203e-06 0.000014 0.000053 0.000133 0.000271 0.000474 0.000773
2025-05-25 6.995065e-07 0.000012 0.000048 0.000128 0.000267 0.000474 0.000784
2025-06-01 4.175677e-07 0.000010 0.000046 0.000125 0.000267 0.000480 0.000801